I hate when people make predictions. No one walks around talking about how three months ago they picked the Dolphins as a dark horse superbowl contender. You hear primarily about the most brazen conjectures, though even a relative no-brainer will usually prompt an “I called that”. Any jackass with a friend or computer can spout off knowing that the more outlandish proposals garner more bragging rights, as well as less reason to defend oneself when it doesn’t pan out: “Okay, so he didn’t win it, but Ricky Davis still had MVP-type numbers”. If someone’s enjoyment of sport is necessarily attached to forecasting the outcome, who am I to judge? Just keep it to yourselves, please.

No one needs a wise-ass sports nerd thinking he’s Nostradamus.

And with that:

Jrock’s early season NBA award predictions:

Because how much can you really tell from 18 games? Just about everything…

MVP: I see this as the same scenario as last year: Lebron vs. Steve-o (I still refuse to acknowledge Boozer and the Jazz, for me it is a bad dream). There’s a fairly divisive debate regarding what the criteria should be when voting. Some argue MVP means the best player, pure and simple. Others maintain that it should be the player most crucial to a great team. The question is, how much should statistics be factored in? How about personnel around them? If you put Nash on another team, chances are it would be with a different offense and less scoring options. His own scoring would probably increase and his assists would go down. While PPG continues to be the driving force in establishing a player’s popularity and value (monetary and otherwise), its influence is declining. Just ask Gilbert Arenas, his 29 points was only good enough to get him to the all star game after Jermaine O’Neal dropped out.

I think ultimately you have to balance all the contributing factors, and that said I’m going with Nash. Lebron’s numbers have gone down slightly from last year, while Nash’s are up almost across the board, including points, three-point percentage and assists. The Suns are killing teams, and Amare Stoudamire looks devastating again (25 and 12 average over the last five). Would a Nash-less Suns beat a Lebron-less Cavs? You bet they would, like a red-headed stepchild. But the Suns are a contender, and the Cavs are…well, let’s face it, a contender. They play in the East, for God’s sake.

Rookie of the Year: At one point I was going with Rondo, and I still think he may prove to be the best player from this class. Unfortunately, I think we may have to wait until the post-Doc era before seeing what he can do. Fortunately, I don’t think we have long to wait.

I’d like to say Bargnani, and I’m not ruling that out completely. He has certainly made the most of this recent boost in playing time, which will only increase as the season goes on. But at this point it’s still Morrison. His 15 points a game is well ahead of the field and he plays a major role on his team, even though they are the Bobcats.

Sixth Man: If he qualifies (meaning he doesn’t start in more games than he comes off the bench), it should be Barbosa. I don’t think anyone has the impact coming into the game that he does, and he often plays down the stretch in the fourth quarter. His percentages have gone down, but his scoring is way up and he is just so damn fast.

Other potential winners are Ryan Gomes, Anderson Varejao, Shaun Livingston, Monta Ellis, Adam Morrison, etc. This one is really tough to tell early on as injuries down the road may effect starting lineups.

Most Improved Player: At the risk of further angering any Jazz fans (people from Utah frighten me, seriously), Kevin Martin will lock this one up. When Boozer goes down with a season-ending injury and winds up playing the third lead in SLC Punk Vol. 2, Martin’s 11 PPG increase (double that of Carlos) will continue outshine any competition.

Coach of the Year: At this point, any coach who keeps his job until the end of the season is a candidate. Judging by Orlando’s amazing start, Brian Hill would have to be in the running. This guy just looks too much like my high school coach, and he has the same two expressions: confused, and more confused. But who else has won so many games with mediocre personnel? Alright, I should just shut up and pick Jerry Sloan. Jerry Sloan.

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